2019 industrial News
US President Donald trump signed a presidential memorandum on February 22, which will impose a massive tariff on Chinese imports and restrict Chinese companies' investment in the us, according to the results of the "301 survey". Mr. Trump told the media before the White House signed that the Chinese goods involved in the tax would amount to $60 billion. What impact will this have on domestic steel prices?
First of all, let's review the past few years China's export of steel products to the United States and the United States imports of steel products: because the United States on China's iron and steel steel exports continue to "double re-verse", China's exports to the United States steel quantity in recent years of low proportion, 2.16% in 2015, 1.08% in 2016, and the proportion of 12.22% in 2006. In 2017, China's direct export of steel to the us is 1.18 million tons, accounting for 1.57 percent of China's total steel exports.
According to The U.S. department of commerce announced in February, 2018, "The Effect of Imports of Steel on The National Security," The report data show that in 2017 The United States imported Steel 2017 tons, 784000 tons of Imports of Chinese Steel products, in The 11th, accounts for only 2.2% of The total Imports from The United States.
It can be seen that many times in the United States to China adopted a policy of anti-dumping, countervailing, China direct export total steel were smaller, so the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff policy effects on the direct export to the United States steel quantity is very limited.
But in recent years, China's steel exports go "curve" asssisting route, specifically take the entrepot trade way through indirect exports in southeast Asia to the United States, or export to South Korea continue to manufacture and then exported to the United States, these steel exports even more than the amount of direct export to the United States.
Released at the same time, the increase of import tariff agreements, the United States has added some tariff exemption from countries such as Canada, Mexico, South Korea, Australia, eu, etc., and countries such as China, Russia, Turkey. Such targeted policy, in the field of iron and steel to China "trade war", also prove that the us has, to a certain extent in the national strategic level to treat China as a "strategic competitor".
So we expect in the future, as in the United States continues to increase the quota, tariff exemption from countries will put forward a series of conditions, as a requirement of China's steel exports to centralized state to a certain limit, the export further into the "closed" China steel channel.
Look at home, a slightly different pattern of steel supply and demand in 2018 and 2017, 2017 to capacity, hit the "DeTiaoGang" action, leading to supply the rendering stage, the structural unbalance situation, promote steel prices rose steadily.
After the second half of last year, steel mills to improve capacity utilization and the state shall encourage the development of short process production, such as capacity replacement policy, makes the electric capacity and the production situation compared to last year, electric furnace production gaps periodic increment can already, so the contradiction between supply and demand this year not as obvious as last year, steel prices will return to the fundamentals of supply and demand, and some of these "out" of the steel, could put pressure on domestic steel demand.
Today, we see the news, hit every futures varieties almost trend bluff type fell over, screw, heat (all jump empty low open, this is the market reaction and emotional intensity of the incident. On the spot level, however, I think it is important to keep a close eye on supply and demand, which is the decisive factor in the long-term price trend.
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This is the traditional peak season for steel consumption, but steel prices have been on a roller-coaster ride for nearly two weeks, first rising and then falling sharply.
A few weeks ago it was expected that the surge of hoarders had turned into a highly innovative inventory, and the market's failure to anticipate the "golden three" had even exacerbated the steel price decline. Steel industry researchers believe this weekend's inventory data will be critical, or whether the "silver four" will be available.
"The recent market sentiment is weaker, steel market continues to shake the possibility of adjustment is larger." Steel network chief researcher qiu yucheng said that the overall social inventory of steel now exceeds 20 million tons, of which more than 10 million tons of steel, the highest in three years.
Qiu yucheng believes that "expectations" left the market trend. Before and after the Spring Festival, small families are particularly optimistic about the demand of the year, driving steel prices out of a wave of "winter storage" market, and also the rapid increase of social stock. Such bullish expectations even continued to boost the black line even after a light week after the week-long lunar New Year holiday. However, after the Lantern Festival, the downstream demand did not show the expected start signs, which put pressure on the steel traders who were stocking up at the earlier stage. Last week, the heavy taxes on imported steel, part of the macro data less than expected in succession such as news, plus a short position in the market, apply colours to a drawing steel digestive problems such as news, further stimulate stock up their shipment as soon as possible.
"The steel for the winter storage has sunk into a loss. If the stock is hoarded in January, traders will also be under pressure to return to the capital in the near future. Mr Qiu said this week's change in inventory data would be critical and would further impact the market if it did not meet expectations. But since the weekend, the steel market has been a good deal, and this week stocks are expected to drop. Large-scale starts have also been concentrated since March 15, and there is no evidence that demand will weaken in the three to four months of April.
In an interview with reporters, Mr. Ho said the recent market debate about high inventories has led to a sharp drop in steel prices. Compared with historical data, the current data is not the highest.
According to his research, traders are generally returning to work after the seventh day of the first month, and are optimistic about post-holiday demand. However, due to factors such as the late Spring Festival, 30 to 40 percent of the workers were not returned to work until the Lantern Festival. The construction process is slower than usual, causing mismatch between supply and demand. At present, steel mills are not in high stock, and prices are generally raised and even raised from the latest price policy. This year will continue to strengthen the steel industry to capacity, strictly control the supply side, the news is also beneficial to the steel industry. "On the whole, it's just a delay. The drop is expected to continue until the end of march. 'silver four' is still available. "He hangsheng said.
Based on the most recent spot market performance, the agency reports that both the steel mills and the spot market have certain resilience. Market confidence in the gradual start of demand in mid-to-late march still exists, and market confidence has not completely faded. Once the price falls to the market psychological level, the purchase demand will be started.
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